With so many folks picking GSP to win in their upcoming fight this weekend - including more than a few informed folks taking GSP by stoppage - I thought I'd put together a few thoughts on how BJ might win this fight.
For one, BJ has a puncher's confidence. He believes - probably rightly - that if he connects with a strike, there's a good chance that GSP will be immediately in trouble. It happened in their first fight and it happened in GSP's upset loss to Matt Serra. Whether or not there is any chance that it will happen in this fight is irrelevant. BJ has every reason to believe it could happen again and that gives him an edge in the standup.
GSP in BJ's guard is the other place where this fight is likely to spend time. I think the fighters are effectively equal here. BJ's guard game, despite his flexibility, is really more about getting back to his feet or sweeping. GSP's ground-n-pound is good. But he was unable to finish Fitch with it. And in order to get the stoppage against Serra, he had to switch to a sort of turtle ride that I just don't see BJ hanging out in. Even Serra was able to roll back into guard a time or two before GSP overwhelmed him.
I also think that GSP might be under pressure to "do something" while on top in BJ's guard. Again, BJ doesn't get focused on trying to submit from the guard like so many other fighters. Returning to the feet and getting the sweep are both alternatives that I think he'll go for readily. I think GSP has a hard time defending sweeps, attempts to stand and submissions while launching his own ground and pound attack.
The most underrated part of BJ's ground game is his top game. The most interesting potential scenario in this fight is if BJ gets top position in GSP's guard. This could happen as a result of a BJ sweep or even from a BJ takedown (I think BJ was looking to takedown Sherk in the later rounds of their fight and may have a similar idea in this one). If this happens, I think GSP doesn't waste time trying to submit or sweep, but instead is 100% focused on getting back to the feet. That makes it easier for BJ to attack from the top.
GSP is rightly the favorite. Just as Matt Hughes was in his first matchup with BJ. And if GSP can play a "ground control" type of game - along with some long range kickboxing - he can win a decision. But there are a handful of fighters that probably should always be backed when they show up as underdogs: and BJ Penn is one of them.
