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There was no point at which I thought that Rashad Evans was likely to beat Lyoto Machida this past Saturday. As I said to a teammate a few days before, I just don't find any reason to bet against Machida.
Thinking about it in the wake of Machida's dominating victory, I wrote at one message board that Machida's most challenging opponent would be either one with a comparably effective long-range striking game (a la Anderson Silva) or a top, close-the-distance oriented strike/clinch/takedown game (a la Fedor or, arguably, vintage Couture). I still pretty much feel that way.
Watching Machida's karate reminds me of the tae kwon do I grew up with at Jhoon Rhee's D.C.-area karate monopoly, the point fighting tournament circuit of the early 1980s ... I always resented point fighting for the same reasons I grew to resent boxing: it seemed to be a game rigged for the length, the long-limbed rangy fighter I would never be. To me, the ultimate point fighter was a guy, Hakim Alston, who I remember from my Jhoon Rhee days: a long, Praying Mantis-bodied guy with super-fast reflexes who fought with a sidekick like a jousting pole and a backfist like a whip.
But hats off to Machida, who if nothing else is bringing back the art of kicking as a way of creating space, determining range and establishing tempo. I still have enough karate in me to see the difference in between Machida's kicking game and the leg-kick centric kicking game of Muay thai and the powerkick mentality of the kickboxers. It's fun to see.
I like Machida to defend against Rampage, who will try to stand with Machida and will lose, and matchup with Shogun. I still like Machida over Shogun. But right now, Shogun presents the most interesting stylistic matchup - assuming he's on his game. That's the one I'm really looking forward to seeing.
Elsewhere, Forrest Griffin has a number of rematches lining up: Rampage, Evans, Jardine, Shogun ... all of which make his upcoming bout with Anderson Silva even less sensical. The UFC is in a bit of a panic mode over its MW division, which is encouraging them to "make fights" instead of simply continuing to build the division.
